Is ARC-AGI-2 still meaningful?
Status:Near ceiling Checked against the report, 5 November 2026
Verdict
Barely. It went from 54% to 95% in nine months, and little headroom is left.
Why near ceiling: GPT-6 Astra scores 95.0% (Sep 2026), and humans reach 100%, so only a small gap remains.[1][1] ARC-AGI-2 leaderboard data ARC Prize Primary
What “Near ceiling” meansKnown problems
What to look at instead
- ARC-AGI-3 Status:Contested Yes, but only with the harness named. One adapter moves the top score by 37 points.
Where it appears in the report
Chapter 1, Benchmarks
- Figure 1. Each New Benchmark Fills Up Faster Than the Last
- Figure 2. Recent benchmarks went from 50% to 90% in under a year
- Table 2. First model to cross each threshold in “Go deeper: The full saturation timeline (14 benchmarks)”
- Table 3. How each area replaced its saturated benchmarks, oldest first in “Go deeper: Lineage of replacements, by area”
- Table 5. Reasoning and knowledge benchmarks: what they measure, who maintains them, the top score on 5 November 2026 and the known flaw in “Go deeper: Reasoning and knowledge benchmarks (17)”
Sources
Copied from the chapter source lists. Each number links back to the source in its chapter.
- [1] ARC-AGI-2 leaderboard data, ARC Prize. Semi-private scores and the human panel result. Primary arcprize.org Chapter 1, source 2
- [2] Benchmark data bundle, Epoch AI. Dated scores (5 Nov 2026) and ceilings for most benchmarks here. Primary epoch.ai Chapter 1, source 1
- [3] Introducing Claude Opus 5.5, Anthropic. It gives Anthropic's launch table and caveats. Vendor anthropic.com Chapter 1, source 12